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timothy sexauer's avatar

Excellent analysis, Neal. You mention AI replacing labor, and I'd be curious to see your complex system analysis extended to further include this dynamic. Especially the massive and rapidly growing depletion of ecological capital in the form of mineral mining, energy consumption, and water use and contamination caused by AI and data centers. Included in this added complexity would be something like Jevon's paradox, where cost savings involved in AI replacement of labor seems to mean that the technosphere will expand ever more rapidly. Economic costs decreasing leading to increasing ecological and hydrological costs. Thanks again for sharing your insights. I much appreciate how you apply your mind and communication to systems in dire need of it. Cheers.

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Mitra Ardron's avatar

A good analysis, but one place I'd disagree with you is the inherent assumption that the number of productive people required to care for each non-productive person is constant. Increased automation - especially AI - will shed jobs, at the same time as we need more people in the care professions - so we'll see a shift in the kinds of employment towards the things humans do better than machines.

The area this breaks down is the "economic" side of caring - this fails if all the wealth from reduced requirements for labor ends up in the hands of oligarchs rather than being distributed. This, of course, is part of the doughnut economics way of looking at things.

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